Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Solar cycle forecasting: A nonlinear dynamics approach
The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activities, the international monthly smoothed sunspot number. It is well known that the solar cycle is very difficult to predict due to the intrinsic complexity of the relat...
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Aims. We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. Methods. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time series of sunspots. We focus on the extreme events that exceed a carefully chosen threshold and a generalized Pareto distribution is fitted to the...
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The prediction of hourly solar radiation data has important consequences in many solar applications (Markvart, Fragaki & Ross, 2006). Such data can be regarded as a time series and its prediction depends on accurate modeling of the stochastic process. The computation of the conditional expectation, which is in general non-linear, requires the knowledge of the high order distribution of the samp...
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By explicitly taking into account effects of Alfvén waves, I derive from a simple energetics argument a fundamental relation which predicts solar wind (SW) speeds in the vicinity of the earth from physical properties on the sun. Kojima et al. recently found from their observations that a ratio of surface magnetic field strength to an expansion factor of open magnetic flux tubes is a good indica...
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Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its fluctuating nature an efficient use will require reliable forecast information of its availability in various time and spatial scales depending on the application. The current status of forecasting solar irradiance for energy generation purposes is briefly reviewed with respect to very short-term ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Annales Geophysicae
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1432-0576
DOI: 10.5194/angeo-26-231-2008